EVENT-SECURITY MAPPING

Prediction Market Intelligence

Cross-platform prediction market events mapped to affected securities with real-time probability streams.

3 YEARSJSON, CSV, ParquetReal-time (5-minute resolution)

Overview

Active events300+
Securities mapped500+
PlatformsPolymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Metaculus
Resolution5-minute continuous
HistoryJune 2022-present
DeliveryWebSocket + S3 backfill
DeliveryS3, REST API, WebSocket

What's included

Event Probability Stream

Per-event probability time series with 24h/7d/30d changes, volume, open interest, and cross-platform normalization.

Security Sensitivity Scoring

Event-to-security mapping with sensitivity scores validated against historical price reactions.

Cross-Platform Normalization

Unified schema across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, and Metaculus. Compare identical events across venues.

Application

Event-Driven Trading

Use prediction market probabilities as a real-time gauge of political and economic event likelihood. Map probability shifts directly to affected securities.

Macro Hedging

Track probability of tariff changes, rate decisions, and regulatory actions. Pre-position before consensus shifts using crowd-sourced probability.

Cross-Market Arbitrage

Identify divergences between prediction market implied probabilities and options-implied probabilities on the same underlying events.

Request trial access.

90-day trial with restricted scope for backtesting. No commitment required.